U.S. SCIENTISTS: RUSSIA IS RAPIDLY DYING

Maria Vasilyeva
Russian Service of the BBC, Washington

Birth rate in Russia is at the European level, but the mortality rate is higher.
The number of suicides, poisonings, homicides and accidents in Russia is comparable to the level of the mortality rate from these same causes in Sierra Leone, Angola and Burundi, countries that are undergoing or have recently emerged from conflict. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, for every three deaths in Russia there are only two births.
These data are from a study published by Professor American Enterprise Institute by Nicholas Eberstadt in the book "Russia's demographic crisis in peacetime."
"It's not just a vast demographic crisis, it is a far-reaching all-pervading crisis of human resources", - says Eberstadt.
According to researchers, despite all the signs of impending disaster, Russia's political elite has not realized the extent of changes taking place.
American scientists are confident that in the next twenty years the problem of rapid decline of the working population will affect all spheres of life of Russian society.
Because of the dramatic demographic crisis, say the researchers, Russia will have reconsider its position on the world stage, and perhaps even its political system and geographic boundaries.
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Fertility and mortality
The sharp decline in population that Russia is going through the past 20 years, is primarily due to the predominance of deaths over the number of births.
Average mortality in Russia ... is approximately 50% higher than in the new EU member states, that is, in fact countries of the former Soviet bloc.
Nicholas Eberstadt, author of the study "Russia’s demographic crisis in peacetime".
Russian women give birth on average about the same as a women of Western Europe. For this indicator, Russia can be attributed to the countries' of the second demographic transition," says Nicholas Eberstadt.
At the same time, Russians are dying out at an incredible speed incomparable with Europe.
"The average Russian general level of mortality today is more than twice the rate of mortality in Western Europe", - says Eberstadt.
No less striking, according to the researcher is that "the average death rate in Russia ... is by about 50% higher than in the new EU member states, that is, in fact the former Soviet bloc countries.”
One of the main causes of death – are cardiovascular diseases. 40% people are dying in Russia than in Finland, the European record holder for the number of deaths from heart attacks and strokes.

Educated, but ill
The study by Nicholas Eberstadt shows that Russia’s population is dying out, by looking at statistics on a variety of parameters.
One reason for the high mortality rate – is alcoholism
"Russia is a modern paradox, and perhaps a unique, modern paradox: with a high accessibility to education, there is a shortage of human capital", - says Eberstadt.
Health problems among educated Russians with this, are more than, for example, educated people in many countries in Latin America, where education is available to a much smaller percentage of the population.
The gap between the mortality rate of educated Russians and those who received no education, is not comparable with European or American levels, and is at a level similar to indicators for South Africa.
In order to assess the intellectual capacity of modern Russia, Eberstadt has taken as a measure, the number of patents for inventions and scientific discoveries, which are registered in the country.
The entire Russian Federation is hopelessly lagging behind the U.S. and Japan, as well as Singapore and Taiwan, and receives the same amount of patents per capita as the U.S. state of West Virginia.
"Given the level of income in the country, as well as a huge number of university graduates, patented knowledge should be three times higher," - explains the action of the algorithm, Nicholas Eberstadt.
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Leaving Russia for their own prosperity

"The leadership in the Kremlin to some degree is trying to fight these problems, but it seems the ambitious leaders of Russia have not even begun to realize the scale of what is happening" - sums up Eberstadt.
For many Russians, especially the educated and professionally mobile, [the result of the demographic crisis] will be motivated to leave Russia.

Enders Wimbush, Hudson Institute

The researcher has noted a small trend toward stabilization of the population in recent years and hopes for the best.
"There is no turning back” - categorically declares Enders Wimbush, a senior vice president of the Hudson Institute, for many years involved in Russian studies. He goes on, “Russia is unlikely to be saved or will save herself from this depletion of human capital, which is making it uncompetitive or unsustainable."
“As a result”, says Wimbush, “a country such as Russia in its current form, may soon cease to exist altogether.”
According to Wimbush, the main question is: how will the Russians behave when the inevitable becomes a reality? And also, what will the Russian leadership do, and how will this benefit other countries of the world?
"For many Russians, especially the educated and professionally mobile, this will be the motivating factor for them to leave Russia", - the expert believes.
"This is an obvious step, when all around you education is becoming worse, the industry does not develop, the health of the population falls, and the majority of people are becoming increasingly unhappy," - adds Wimbush.

Technology instead of people

Enders Wimbush of the Hudson Institute also predicts that Russia's place in world affairs has fundamentally changed.
"In implementing the [above] demographic scenario, it's difficult to imagine that [Russia] will be at least a regional power," - says Wimbush.
The researcher believes that one possible way to combat the situation for the Russian authorities, would lie in the development of technologies that would partially compensate for the reduction of human resources.
The size of the working population is declining, but in order to diversify the commodity and energy component of the economy a more highly skilled workforce is needed.

Fiona Hill, Brookings Institution

"I would not be surprised if Russia becomes an even more active player in the field of nuclear technology” - she says. – “The country will extend its remaining influence to other countries to shift the existing balance in it own interests. And Russia will be viewed as a force that affects the balance, but not as a leader and not even as a key partner in relationships or alliances."
Fiona Hill, director of U.S. foreign policy and Europe at the Brookings Institution, added that many of the actions of the Russian authorities now focus just on solving the problems of demography.
Military reform and the desire to rearm, the reform of health and education - all this, according to Hill, is due to the demographic crisis.
But most importantly, what the Russian authorities are focusing on is - an effort to restore the deteriorating from time infrastructure of the country and diversify the economy.
"To solve these two problems is the most difficult of the challenges considering the above mentioned demography - says Fiona Hill. - The size of the working population is declining, but in order to diversify the commodity and energy component of the economy, a more highly skilled workforce is needed."
Thus, the expert said, the modernization of which so many leaders of Russia talk of, is becoming less attainable.
The challenges facing the authorities in the country each year are getting more complex. And whoever becomes the next Russian leader, awaiting him are a whole range of complex issues, some of which have been caused by the most serious demographic crisis in Europe.